Blogger: Janet Kobobel Grant
Wendy apologizes that you aren’t reading a blog post from her today. She’s traveling and posting blogs, remembering what day it is, that sort of thing, flitted right out of her brain. She’ll be back next week both Monday and Tuesday.
Meanwhile, here’s the blog I intended to post next Monday. Happy reading!
Several months ago I read an article in Forbes Magazine that I mentally keep revisiting. The author, David Vinjamuri, posits that publishers have it wrong when they measure an author’s future success based on previous copies sold and on platform. Vinjamuri believes stats show it’s more important that an author’s ability to get readers to come back to buy the next book and the next is the real powerhouse in publishing. You can read the full article here.
I keep coming back to his proposition because we know:
Platform isn’t a guarantee of book success. Publishers have learned this the hard way when they produced books written by individuals with massive blog readerships, only to find the blog readers didn’t convert to book readers. What publishers should look for is loyal readers who are meaningful engaged with the blogger and for bloggers who can write a book with a message tied to their blogs but not duplicates of blog material.
Also, celebrity status doesn’t automatically mean a book will sell well. I recall a book that was produced by Zondervan while I was an editor there. The author, John DeLorean, designer of, among other iconic cars, the DeLorean (which is remembered as the time machine vehicle in the film Back to t
he Future), was caught up in a scandal when he was arrested for drug trafficking. He later was acquitted because government agents had entrapped him into selling them drugs.
Zondervan executives believed that the Christian community would want to hear DeLorean’s side of the story and invested a great deal in the ensuing book. Even though DeLorean’s name was widely recognized, his platform, his celebrity, weren’t sufficient to sell many copies of the book. One issue that worked against him was that many people felt he was guilty of drug trafficking but got off because of the entrapment ruling–a technicality. The second issue was that, even though he was a great car designer, he actually was a shy man. I had a chance to meet him and suddenly found myself in the room alone with him. I struggled to come up with a conversational topic once we covered car designing–a subject I pretty much exhausted once I mentioned that my brother had owned a GTO. DeLorean’s personality didn’t lend itself to gripping interviews.
Sales can only tell you what succeeded in the past, not forecast the future. In his Forbes article, Vinjamuri points out that basing future success on past sales is, in some ways, a poor device to use. It’s a pretty straightforward way to go because numbers are easy to obtain. But what about a much subtler, harder to measure pointer to long-term success–readers determining they will buy the author’s next book after reading the current one.
What counts most in predicting a successful future is brand loyalty.
This also means good reviews or awards aren’t necessarily harbingers of a book selling. The Forbes article points to The Cuckoo’s Calling as a perfect example. Despite solid reviews, its sales were lackluster until the person behind the nom de plume was outed–J. K. Rowling. Then sales boomed. Why? Because her readers wanted to buy whatever she had written.
But the real surprise of the article was when Vinjamuri checked the Codex survey for the strongest brand in publishing and found it was Lee Child’s protagonist Jack Reacher. “Child doesn’t have the largest following among bestselling authors,” Vinjamuri writes. “Just over a third of book shoppers are aware of him versus the more than 95% who know John Grisham and the 99% aware of Stephen King, both of whom have sold more books.”
But a third of Reacher readers chose Child as their favorite author, with Grisham and King being ranked “favorite” by a quarter of their readers. And Child has a higher percentage of readers who plan to buy his next book, with 41% of Grisham’s readers planning to buy his next book and 70% of Child’s planning on that purchase.
How did Child build this loyal fan base? First, we need to acknowledge that Child started writing before social media became the go-to marketing maven. So the methods he used to build loyalty, while still “tried and true,” don’t reflect the real world for aspiring authors today.
Here are the steps Child took:
1. Consistency. He wrote in a series rather than standalone. Readers felt they knew who Jack Reacher was, and Child made sure they encountered the same Reacher in every book they read–not that the character didn’t grow or change, but basic characteristics stayed the same.
2. Authenticity. Child observes there’s a difference between accuracy and authenticity. A writer needs to use facts that are believable, that ring true to the reader, rather than being factual. “I live in New York….The actual reality of [life in] New York might not seem believable to the reader who doesn’t live here.” Having authenticity in a setting, aspects of the protagonist’s profession, and manner in which people behave cause the reader to have that “you are there” feeling, which goes a long way in building loyalty.
3. Uniqueness. Child ignores what everyone else is writing in his genre but instead keeps his focus on the world and characters he’s created in his own series. “If you start with a laundry list of things [that everyone else is including] then the book won’t be organic.”
Ultimately, what we know is that sales numbers and platform don’t predict success. A deeper look at how the author engages readers is a better indicator, but a more elusive one.
Do you agree that return buyers are more important, in the long run, than number of copies sold?
Why do you think publishers use previous sales as the measure for future success?
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Janet, I almost didn’t realize this was a new post. I kept looking for Wendy’s picture! 🙂
I have much to learn in this area, so anything from me won’t mean much here. But I know that both return buyers and number of copies sold are both important. Return buyers would be significant because it would predict future sells, but I guess one wouldn’t know if there will be return buyers until that second go around.
I can see why publishers use previous sales … it’s such a risk … not knowing if previous buyers will return … until the risk is taken.
I imagine the third go around is more relaxing, if all went good in the past … loosen the tie a bit.
Forgive my ignorance … I’m here to learn. 🙂
Shelli, thanks for overcoming the confusion seeing my pic caused. 🙂 publishers look at past sales as predictors for the very reason you stated: reader loyalty is hard to discern.
As a writer, I’d be happy to have big numbers sold, but I think return buyers are more meaningful. There are a few writers that I am always watching for their latest release. Who wouldn’t love to be one of those writers? And in the long run, I would hope to have a relationship with readers!
One of the pluses of social media is that authors have many more opportunities to connect with readers. Even though it can feel like a lot of work to keep up with FB, Twitter, Pinterest, Instagram, Goodreads, etc., they’re all wonderful ways to connect.
Janet, thank you for filling in and continuing our education. 🙂 I am fascinated by the Jack Reacher books, although I have yet to invest the time in those humongous novels. I think I better get started right away. At least 70% of his readers have already decided they will buy the next book? Wow! That sounds like job security…as much as can be in publishing.
Meghan, yup, Child should be feeling really secure. Of course, if he tires of Jack Reacher and wants to write something else…that probably won’t go well for him.
Great numbers are wonderful, but they set an ever-increasing slope of expectation.
They are also very much of the world. Don’t get me wrong; I’d love to own a Ferrari. But i don’t need one.
I write to touch lives; I write to witness to God’s love, and that (to paraphrase Samwise Gamgee) there is good in this world, and it’s worth fighting for.
If that message reaches a dozen people, I’ll have done my job.
Because (and I’m making no comparisons) a few years ago a Man reached a dozen people, and saved a world.
Andrew, people who worked at a nonprofit where I also was employed used to joke, when a product sold really well, “That’s a lot of ministry.” While the joke is a bit cynical, there’s inherent truth in it. Most writers want, more than anything, to touch lives; it’s a baseline motivation for being published. But the truth is, the more people buy your words, the bigger your ministry, and the more books you get to publish. God, of course, desires for us to be satisfied with the ministry size he grants us. For us, it’s just the right size, whatever that is.
Brand loyalty for sure.
As Lee Child/Jack Reacher fans, both my wife and I have read the entire series. We know Jack Reacher. This is why the whole fan base was appalled when we heard Tom Cruise would play Reacher in the film adaptation.
Reacher is a 6′ 4″ giant of a man. Rugged. Not at all the diminutive pretty boy. Jack Reacher fans were up in arms when the news came out, and the movie only did so-so.
Point being… Stay true to your brand, and always reward your readers for their loyalty. Deliver consistently.
Thanks for the excellent reminder, as always.
I wasn’t aware of the Jack Reacher-Tom Cruise controversy. I can imagine real Reacher fans refusing to darken the movie theater’s door to see a miscast actor playing a character they know and care about. Yup, classic example of a bunch of people who broke the branding rule. (I’m pretty sure Lee Child had no say in that decision; authors generally are left in the dust when it comes to films based on their books.)
Janet, I’m going to hold on to what you said yesterday.
“Irresistible writing.”
I am going to do my best to keep up with all the changes in the publishing business, and do all I can to win over a publisher – but at the end of the day, I will win them over with irresistible writing. Or at least try to. My main objective is to give a reader a novel they can’t put down. I know that is the novel I love to read.
Irresistible writing will give me a relationship with my readers, my agent, and Lord willing, my publisher.
Thank you as always for all your wonderful insight.
I’m with you, Jim. I am placing my publishing hopes on “stellar writing.”
Jim, see my response to Christine, which also applies to your comment. Seeing the big picture is important, and I’ve given you both a little glimpse into that bigger picture.
Hi again, Janet! Like Shelli, it took me a few times to realize this was a new post. I was concerned about Wendy as it is unlike her not to have a blog post. Traveling definitely is disorienting though.
Thank you for a second great post in two days. I do think that looking at how many readers have bought a writer’s second (and third and fourth, etc.) book is more important than social media numbers. I am a fan of J.K. Rowling’s writing and I know she is on Twitter (and maybe on other social media) but I have never paid attention to her social media work. I have bought her books though. Faithfully. I also bought everything James Herriot every wrote plus a book ABOUT him written by his son. Herriot never wrote a single tweet. I don’t think social media existed before he died. He didn’t have to write a blog or have an author FB page for me to feel connected to him; I felt connected to him through his books.
Consistency, which you mention in regards to Mr. Child’s writing, is key. I anticipated Mr. Herriot’s second book, and I knew by the third that I could depend on him to give me utter joy anytime I read his work. The same with J.K. Rowling, Agatha Christie, J.R.R. Tolkien, and Timothy Zahn (who writes Star Wars novels). When there is an author whose work I’ve really enjoyed, that person goes to the top of my list when I search for a new book to read. Having loved Timothy Zahn’s Star Wars novels led me to his DRAGONBACK series, a non-Star Wars fantasy series of books. I probably never would have even known they existed if I hadn’t wanted to read more of his writing. So, as a reader, I obviously think that a history of repeat customers is a better indicator of the success of an author’s new book than blog numbers are. Many people may enjoy reading a blog, but that doesn’t mean they will be willing to shell out the money for a book (especially if they figure out that was the reason the writer was writing the blog).
My question / concern in this is where does all this leave a debut author? I know Hollywood currently is reluctant to go with new ideas and wants to stay with the tried-and-true moneymakers, even going so far as to make movies out of old but popular tv series (such as the Brady Bunch and Bewitched). Please tell me that publishers aren’t leaning toward that extreme level of “safety.”
Christine, stellar writing is a great way to gain reader loyalty. Unfortunately, one of the biggest challenges for writers today is the plethora of books being produced every year (somewhere between 600,000 to 1,000,000 in the US–that’s NEW books). So how does a debut author’s wonderfully written book get discovered? That’s the big challenge not only for the writer but also for the publisher. Everyone is talking about discoverability for a reason.
And that’s where social media comes in. We all are part of a huge community through social media, and it’s imperative that an author be visible in that community. Once readers discover your fabulous book, they’ll come back for more. But they have to find your book first.
Regarding publishers’ willingness to take risk, for the most part, they are being extremely conservative. But they also are inherently driven by creating new product. They don’t have a mindset of mining the wealth they already own in their back list; they think front list. And that’s good for new writers. A publisher has to see compelling reasons to offer a contract for a debut author, but they’re open to being convinced.
Thank you, Janet, for the encouraging statement that publishers are still open to debut authors. I’m on social media and I am not opposed to it. I am glad, though, that social media numbers are not the only thing publishers are looking at in regards to offering contracts.
Have a great week!
I, too, am tuning in late because I didn’t look beyond the photo (not that your writing isn’t stellar, Janet, just that I’m a creature of habit and shortcuts). So as I strive to be good enough for the first book, consistency is the key to future books. And faith is essential to the day-by-day progress.
Dear God, I hope to one day be a published author. But I am learning so much about you and me in the journey, Lord God, that it is worth it even if no one ever reads what I write.
Shirlee, hm, maybe I should have just claimed I was Wendy and used her photo…Thanks for taking the time to read the post and for making a comment!
I ran a coffee bar in Vancouver, and we ALWAYS knew Saturday would be nuts. Always. Why?
Previous customer’s well established behaviour patterns.
Readers always look forward to their favourite author’s new books, because the successful authors know their brand and their readers.
I would read Laura Frantz and Lori Benton’s grocery lists, and probably cry, chew my nails, stay up half the night and then weep at the end.
Return buyers help spread the word and widen the foundation for a great writer. It’s basically the ripple effect. Previous sales numbers are good predictors of future sales, but they can’t guarantee anything.
And Tom Cruise as Jack Reacher? Yeah. Umm.
No.
Jennifer, you’re right. We do the same thing with where we shop, actors we adore, and musicians who make us feel a certain way. I recall reading an article about how we are creatures who long to establish habits, especially in our world that is bursting with options. Too many options! Stop showing me options! I want some tried and true in my life. We want tried and true in our reading as well. Not that we’ll never venture into a new author’s world, but we want the home base of the authors who have never failed us.
Yes! That’s exactly the concept! “Home base”.
Which ties into the all important comp section in the proposals.
“If you like Laura Frantz and Lori Benton, and are curious about the challenges faced with inter-racial relationships in unsettled lands, you’ll also enjoy the writing of Kiersti Plog.”
The ancient culture meets the invaders, and boom, there’s your home base.
We who are forging ahead are resting in the confidence that our respective home bases are well established. BUT, we cannot re-invent that base, merely rely on its foundation of excellence and do our part to expand it.
That’s so true – “we want the home base of authors who have never failed us”.
Quite a responsibility, and it points to the fact that when we develop a readership, our readers are invested in our work.
I believe that we owe them our respect and consideration – because if we’re successful, they are the ones who brought us that success.
Janet, great analogy, and (to my mind, at least), quite accurate. Interesting that more people know about John Grisham than about Lee Child, but as a Jack Reacher fan, I can understand the brand loyalty he inspires.
As for the role of past sales, of course they are an indicator, but they aren’t infallible. I keep harking back to the investment caveat that most financial advisory programs include: Past performance is no guarantee of future returns.
Although I’m sorry to miss Wendy’s thoughts, the ones you shared are excellent.
Richard, you’ll get a double dose of Wendy next week when she writes both on Monday and Tuesday because she owes me big-time for stepping in today!
As I read your comment, I thought about an author (whose identity escapes me at this moment) whose third book is selling like bottled water at a Fourth of July parade. Her first book sold several thousand, and her second book sold 10,000 copies. Then WHAM! her loyal fans plus tens of thousands of other readers bought her third book. One thing that generally is true is that it takes at minimum about three books before a career can skyrocket. For some authors it takes twenty, for some thirty, etc. I know, everyone wants to be the three-book author.
Interesting info, Janet! Thanks for sharing…There’s so much to consider when it comes to publishing and marketing.
Jennifer, indeed. Publishing is an unendingly fascinating and evolving business. It keeps us entertained.
Janet, I’m glad I was able to stop in. I checked in this morning and saw yesterday’s post. I had an all day conference, and now I’m so thankful I stopped back here.
It’s interesting to consider all that is considered when it comes to selling a book. I can definitely see why publishers look at previous sales. It’s an indicator or what could possibly happen again. For good or bad.
I also understand the value of repeat readers. Those readers who wait for an author’s next book because they love the author’s books/series (i.e. Jack Reacher fans). Speaking of, I think I’m going to have to read the first of this series. I’m hearing lots of people talking about it. 🙂
One thing I keep hearing that may (or may not) play a role for debut authors is having a solid following on social media. Not big numbers, but followers who like what they’ve seen of you so far, who you’ve interacted with and who will support you by purchasing and talking about your book. I may be off base. Does having a solid following on social media translate to increased sales for debut authors?
Jeanne, thanks for checking back in to the blog to see if a new post might be up. Having a solid social media following is helpful on two levels for a debut author: 1. You already have a group of people who are thrilled to hear about your new book, and that should result in increased sales; 2. Potential publishers can see that you know how to connect via social media, which enables them to add your online involvement into the marketing and publicity plan. Two big pluses!
Thanks for this post. I agree that reader loyalty is strong driver of success.