Blogger: Janet Kobobel Grant
Do you ever wonder why publishers seem to binge buy? Suddenly suspense is big, and it’s what all the editors want to talk about at writers conferences. But historicals are out.
How can an entire, standard genre be “out”?
On the nonfiction side, memoirs might continue to be hot while devotionals are…well, meh.
I’ve thought about this a lot, trying to wrap my head around this problem. And it is a problem. Years go by in which certain readers are under-served while others are catered to.
When an editor says something to me such as, “No one seems to be buying historicals rights now,” I often respond, “That would be because no publisher is producing historicals. You do realize that, by your not buying historicals, they will continue not to sell well, right?”
Where did the historical readers go? Is publishing dysfunctional in its buying habits?
This past week I created a parable of sorts to explain to myself why entire categories of reading virtually disappear from publishing lists, often for years.
A Publishing Parable
What if the reading-publishing realm were made up of restaurants, and the entire cycle of reading and producing books went from binge eating to starvation, then back to binge eating and starvation again? Rather like an accordion player who flails the accordion out wide and then squeezes it back to a mere shadow of itself. Every spot between the wide and narrow is hit on briefly, but the extremes can occur more often than not…
One dark and stormy night, a waiter (aka an editor or a marketer) suggests 
to a diner (aka reader) that the strawberry shortcake is especially good. The diner orders a piece and tells everyone nearby how amazing the dessert is. Those in proximity to the first diner (except for chocolate holdouts) order strawberry shortcake.
Soon other waiters take note and suggest strawberry shortcake to additional diners. And the diners so enjoy each piece that they order more than one.
A quick glance around the room and binge eating (aka reading) abounds.
The head chef (publisher) takes note and doubles and then triples orders for the strawberry shortcake’s ingredients from the suppliers (authors). The chef keeps some kitchen staff making salads and preparing salmon, but most concentrate on meeting the shortcake demand.
Lines form outside the restaurant as word of the strawberry shortcake spreads. Until other restaurants catch on and start offering their own versions of strawberry shortcake. Sales staff (aka agents) from mainstay suppliers and new suppliers parade varieties of ingredients to be used in these cake delights. Life is good. Supply and demand are equal.
Some suppliers choose to ignore these demands and continue with what they do best (such as make cocoa for chocolate desserts). “There will always be chocolate lovers,” they tell themselves as they look askance at their small stack of orders.
But eventually the affects of binge strawberry shortcake eating set in, and diners, without warning, stop ordering the shortcake. The kitchen is caught with loads of sugar, flour and strawberries.
Some waiters have forgotten anything else was on the menu because they had grown used to offering the strawberry shortcake as soon as diners were settled into their seats.
The head chef has to think about how to redo the menu and must order new ingredients. But what does he choose? Some waiters have ideas, having grown bored with placing only shortcake orders.
But the chef can freeze up mentally in light of the lack of business. The restaurant is experiencing financial starvation.
Suppliers who had chosen to exclusively provide ingredients for the strawberry shortcake must scramble to make adjustments. And the suppliers’ sales reps await word from the chef as to what he wants to buy and make various suggestions of possible directions to go.
Diners, meanwhile, still want to eat, but they don’t know what they want now that they’re so over strawberry shortcake. They expect the menu to entice them to try something. Sure, they have their favorite comfort foods, but this is a time they’re open to a dish they hadn’t considered before.
Most chefs will create a balanced approach to the menu, keeping an eye on what become favorite items. Other chefs call the staff together and remind them of the Strawberry Shortcake Heydays. How can they recreate it? All the employees can expend considerable energy looking for the strawberry shortcake grail that so mysteriously disappeared.
Then, on a dark and stormy night, a waiter suggests to a diner that the filet mignon is especially good. The diner tries it and immediately orders another. Other diners, seeing the gusto with which she consumes her beef, cancel their orders and demand filet mignon. The binge begins again.
The End
Every analogy breaks down at some point, and that’s certainly true of this one. But I think this parable helps us to understand the ebb and flow of publishing’s supply and demand. Of course, the “dance” between the chef, the wait staff, the diners, and the suppliers is much more complex than I’ve depicted here.
Do you agree with the parable?
What elements would you add?
What insights does it offer you in how publishing functions?
What does it suggest about trying to write in response to trends?
TWEETABLES
Are publishing’s buying habits dysfunctional? Click to tweet.
Why do some genres fall out of publishing’s favor? Click to tweet.
This parable is jarring, Janet.
Does the chicken or the egg come first? Does the publisher listen to what the reader wants or do they create a fad from scratch?
I don’t think the average reader pays much attention to the publisher’s name on a book. I know I didn’t before I took writing for publication more seriously.
When a reader finds a book that hits the sweet spot or challenges them (whatever suits their fancy), word of mouth gets the ball rolling.
How are publishers in conversation with their readers? Are they asking what they want next? Maybe the supply overflows because readers want more of the same.
I’m part of a few very active groups of Christian fiction readers, and boy do they have opinions. They talk about their excitement over new titles and authors. They also speak nostalgically of authors or types of books they miss. Just today someone mentioned Eugenia Price.
Your post is a wonderful reminder that I MUST seek out and connect with my prospective reader. Listening to their heartbeat is imperative.
Eugenia Price! Loved her, haven’t read her in years. Off to dig through the bookshelf.
Jenni, when an editor say, “People aren’t buying historicals,” that means “People aren’t buying OUR historicals.” Publishers have a surprisingly small context from which they tend to make decisions: Which of their books are selling. A trend has to be pretty significant before a publisher notices it–Harry Potter, Divergent, Amish in the Christian market.
Sublime parable, Janet. And in terms of trends, I think it beautifully sums up the ever-evolving state of things.
It also gives wings to the unmentionable–if we’re told long enough we like something, then we MUST like it. Who wouldn’t?
While I think trends bear watching, I also believe in God’s providential hand. I’m quite certain He’s smiling and nodding just now. I think, perhaps, your parable tickles Him pink.
Thank you for boldly going where “no man/woman has gone before.” And now–cue Star Trek.
Cynthia, remaining true to who you are is an important premise, which is why I included the chocolate lovers and chocolate purveyors. Not EVERYONE wants strawberry shortcake! And who knows, maybe you’re creating filet mignon…
Love the parable, but I would suggest this…
Publishers are like lemmings. Enough said.
We live in a wonderful time, really. Readers whose genre is neglected have he option of discovering self-published offerings, and can band together with others in an online community to push both the neglected genre and the newly emergent SP’d names.
Way back when – and I am dating myself – publishers were jumping onto the Jacqueline Susann/Harold Robbins bandwagon, and one was truly embarrassed to be perusing the fiction aisles. The only recourse was a reach back into the past, through libraries and used-book stores. I did a lot of that. Does anyone read John Buchan any more? or John Wyndham?
Trying to anticipate and write in newly hot genres seems to me a bit too much of a gamble, and rather a betrayal of one’s readers. People are drawn to an author’s voice because it informs a world that they come to enjoy, and jumping to another genre is at the very least jarring.
Personally – I know my place. I write about love and marriage and relationships because I believe in romance, and in marriage as a sacrament. It’s the greatest adventure most of us will ever have. (It’s a lot more fun – though not necessarily safer – than being shot at.)
This is what I DO, and I’m not going to chase trends. If my world of readers decides to enter cloistered religious orders and stop reading this stuff, I certainly will not turn to the hot new Monastic Fiction genre.
I’ll jut keep writing what I love, and wait for the pendulum to swing back. It will.
Andrew, self-publishing does help to broaden the offerings for a reader, but mining through the dreck is hard work. At least some curation has taken place with a traditional publisher. Still, if the publisher isn’t producing what you want to read…
Regarding what you’re writing, I can’t imagine a time readers would spurn a good love story.
Yes, Andrew, we can go back to grandma’s kitchen via the library. And now it is easier to self-publish than open a new restaurant. People follow the crowd. People get tired of the crowd. People crave the comfort of mac-n-cheese and brownies.
O Lord God, I would so like to see my path to feeding others with my written words neatly organized and predictable. I sense your response, God: “who needs faith when it is all predictable?” So Lord, I say (with a teaspoon of faith, a cup of trembling and a dash of delight), “surprise me.”
And thank you, Janet, for my morning dose of imagination. I crave chocolate for breakfast!
I love your phrase “feeding others with my written words.” That’s so apt of why most writers start on the journey of writing a book.
We have to remind ourselves that straightforward paths are boring, right?
Shirlee;
AMEN TO THE PRAYER . . . and Janet… the parable is apt!
In the frenetic part of dealing with a contract offer than isn’t QUITE what I’d had in mind. . .well. . .let’s just say. . .I’m PRAYING HARD to hear God’s voice in the cacophony hitting me from all sides as I’m also researching two more stories. . .with an editor/publisher in my sites for the one. . .hard to HEAR that still small voice above it all. He keeps reminding me. . .BE STILL AND KNOW I AM GOD. . .IF He’s given me the stories, isn’t it reasonable to watch and listen for where HE wants them to be dealt with? I’m confident that HE’s still in control. I do NOT want to run ahead of Him even when the options are getting slimmer and slimmer from my POV. ‘:) THANK YOU FOR YOUR POST!
Joy, if we place our hope in publishing…well, that won’t work out so well. You seem centered on the important point: Listen for God’s small voice in the cacophony of other voices.
Janet, It must be frustrating to be an agent with a great book to sell and a talented writer to represent, only to find yourself hitting a wall of resistance. Keep on fighting for what you know to be good writing!
Your post will be an encouragement to those who have been turned down, knowing that when the wind changes, their work may just be in demand.
Sheila, having a great book and a talented writer but not finding a publisher interested is very difficult. And the author is burdened because he has written his best work, but no publisher seems to see it for what it is.
Good morning, Janet! As usual, a story helps us understand real life better. 🙂 Thank you for the illustration. Trends frustrate me because it seems too much like we’re following the crowd blindly. God made us as unique individuals, and we need to examine and decide for ourselves. With that said, though, as writers, we need to understand the business model and what readers want. It seems to be a delicate business to write from the heart a story that is publishable.
Meghan, I tend to think in terms of listening to trends through our eyes (what we see is selling) and our hearts (what we believe we should write). I don’t think it’s one or the other, but it is both.
Great parable! I would add the steady, firm voices of those who have not and never will eat strawberry shortcake, voices that don’t hush up, even when there’s strawberry juice all over the place. (Not me. I mean, yum!)
Since I’m one of those people who’d happily run up the down staircase, I’d wear “chocolate forever” t-shirts and yell “eat salad!” from the back of the restaurant.
If I had to write in response to a trend, I’d never get published, because I cannot stand the thought of pandering to whatever is trendy.And that would come through in my writing.
As for insight into the publishing world? The fact that you’d tell it like it is, and I can hear you saying things ‘straight, no chaser’, makes me all the more thankful to be where I am.
If I was signed with an agent who had worry issues, and called ME to be cheered up? I’d hop off the train.
I believe the chocolate lovers and the salad eaters will always be among us. Not every publisher desires to create a balanced list, but thankfully some do.
Janet, your parable is a great depiction of the process. The only problem is that, although strawberry shortcake or filet mignon can be produced within a fairly short time, it takes most authors months, sometimes years, to produce a book.
Thus, as you and most in the industry have said before, chasing trends doesn’t really work, so it’s still a crap-shoot when dealing with the buying and reading public.
Richard, you said what I was thinking. Following a trend is rather pointless because by the time a writer can produce a book to fit the trend the tide has turned toward something else. The only way to catch a trend is to be in front of it.
That’s so true. Those in the front of the trend are called trendsetters for a reason; they created the hue and cry for more strawberry shortcake. The challenge is figuring out how big the front end is. When Amish novels hit big in the Christian market, some said it would become a standard genre; others thought it would fade quickly. I think neither was right. I don’t think it will become a standard genre, but it has lasted far longer than I ever thought it would.
That means Amish had a big “front end.” So much was being consumed that even two years in, an author could bring a fresh approach to the genre and sell exceedingly well.
But we don’t know these things at the outset, which brings us back to what an author’s heart and mind urgently need to create.
Reading this and the comments above me remind me why it’s probably better to write a quality book with a unique voice rather than to try writing to the trends. And, as Andrew said, the pendulum will probably swing back at some point in time.
Chasing a trend means I’m behind it, and being behind it means I’m too late. I know publishers look at things slightly differently than writers do. Especially based on your well-written parable. Your parable makes it sound a little like publishers, in some ways, shape what people read by virtue of what publishers do/don’t publish. You’ve got me thinking about this. . . .
Jeane, publishers definitely do move readers in one direction or another. If a publisher produces books that push the boundaries of what’s socially acceptable, readers begin to think they’re more conservative than they had realized. They, in turn, can become less conservative as a result of the types of books available.
It’s not necessarily a conspiracy within a publishing house, but certain people will be drawn to work at specific publishers, where the employees fit into that house’s culture. That translates to those on the publishing committee tending to think alike. What’s shocking to them is probably the same thing. What’s “appropriately” nudging society to think a certain way will also tend to be viewed as the same thing.
Great parable, Janet. This also applies to the fashion industry. You’ve reminded me of the struggle my daughter and I have to find modest clothing for summer.
Just because there seems to be a large number of shoppers who will purchase too high shorts and too low tops doesn’t mean there isn’t a sizable group of us who’d prefer more fabric per item.
The consequences of the supply and demand mentality can be frustrating. But I understand the need for retailers to watch out for the bottom line.
Blessings ~ Wendy ❀
Wendy, that’s so true. I recall one year going shopping and being lost in a department store’s sea of black. Black was very “in” that year, and it was tough to find one bright spot of color floating amidst the waves of black. Quite discouraging to someone whom black doesn’t favor.
I do have a question – what kind of analytical predictive modeling do publishing houses do to try to forecast trends?
It has to be more sophisticated than a “number of units sold over time” curve. Or is it? To what degree do qualitative “gut feeling” factors play a role?
I know the specifics of any analytical process, weighting functions and the like, are proprietary and closely held…but have you ever gotten any insight into this process that you would be willing and able to share?
I suspect publishing will become much more of a numbers game once publishers figure out how to use the vast array of stats becoming available to them–how far did a person read in a book; is there a spot in the book when the majority quit reading; if the publisher lowers the price by $1, what effect will that have on sales, etc.
At this point, publishers tend to make decisions based on what the sales reps think they can sell; what past sales are with similar titles; how effectively the author can generate sales; whether this is a book that suits the publishing house’s overall publishing plan. And that is all tumbled together is the gut feeling of the publishing committee. Pretty subjective stuff, really, when you get down to it.
Andrew, from my husband’s experience, he’s never met a single analytical predictive model that even came close to the actual facts. He’s got stat after stat that makes the models look like kindergarten kids drew them.
No, atmospheric temps and tree productivity have almost nothing to do with publishers, other than the paper, but predictive modeling is often less reliable than a Magic 8 Ball.
Jennifer, that’s so true and one of the sobering aspects of where publishing could potentially move to.It could become so reliant on numbers that the maddeningly wonderful part of going with one’s gut instinct could become obsolete. And that would be the saddest news of all.
I wonder if part of the binge buying isn’t due to a new, talented author coming onto the scene.
I think of Laura Frantz and Lori Benton who both “burst” onto the scene with their debut books. Their stories were so good and a bit unique in their genre, both so rich and satisfying, that everyone raved about them. We loved them so much that finishing that first book of their made us wish for more since they had no back list and it would be a year or so before we could enjoy them again. So suddenly their type of historical was hot–which made the historical category itself seem hot. Could that be part of it?
Totally, Sally. That’s why in my parable, it’s the diner’s response to the strawberry shortcake that started the deep dive into that dessert throughout the restaurant. Word-of-mouth among readers is the most powerful way for book sales to take off.
And, if that author can’t produce enough (and few can), that jumpstarts a genre, as readers start looking on Amazon for recommendations on that first title’s page. Or asking friends if they’re read anything that was like Laura Frantz’s or Lori Benton’s books.
Trends just leave my head spinning. I have a hard enough time trying to write well about an idea I can find book-length passion for. I’m going to worry about making the best chocolate cheesecake doughnuts I can and pray that I’ll find an audience with a similar sweet tooth to mine.
Kristen, I think writer needs to make the decision you have, or he would expend all his energy chasing after trends. And that’s a seriously frustrating way to live.
I think this parable is fairly apt.
As a reader, I hate when I can’t find the types of books I want because “nobody reads those.”
As a writer, I cringe when my genre becomes popular because I’m not quite ready to query. I wish publishers didn’t have such an “all or nothing” mentality. There’s room in the food court for every type of cuisine.
Elissa, amen to the food court concept. Some publishers do operate from that paradigm, but many expend a lot of energy on finding that strawberry shortcake grail.
I’ve been writing historicals for several years, waiting and hoping to someday be published. I have a manuscript in the hands of two editors now; I hope neither one takes that “no historicals” trend seriously!
Terri, let me hurriedly say that I didn’t intend this blog post to be a statement of what is or isn’t popular right now. I’ve had the same conversation about contemporary fiction in years past. And then the next time I met with the same editor, she would be eager to see contemporary. The pendulum does swing.
A few weeks ago, an agent judging my entry in a contest wrote regarding potential in the current marketplace, “It may be difficult at this time. Historical is waning and a little hard to sell to editors.” That was unsettling.
Janet: To take your parable further . . . Would the e-version of your product “Strawberry Shortcake” be the actual Recipe?
Would the audio version be the diner describing the entire dining experience while eating the “Strawberry Shortcake”.
Would the “Strawberry Shortcake” Video Game Version, end up being:
A Fabulously Fun Food Fight.
Your parable is awakening. Wow! It’s so frightening true. Yikes! Seasons come and go and change. Reader’s likes come and go, too. Trends change more often then seasons. What’s a writer to do? Write the best thing you can and ignore the trends.
Thanks for sharing with us. We need to hear valuable things.
Regards, S.J. Francs
SJ, I’m sobered by the reality as well, which is why I wrote the parable. It’s so hard to see an industry that relies on creative work that takes months if not years to create each piece being subject to the whims of the moment.
As I told those at the writer’s conference this weekend, “You are not writing for today’s market. Don’t pay attention to the trends. Write the book of your heart. They’ll see your passion and someday–at the right moment–the future will demand your work.”
I wonder if the state of our industry reflects a binge on strawberry shortcake in which the chef, intent on cutting losses, is reworking strawberries and flour and sugar in any way they can. Ignoring the perfectly unique dessert item, as yet untried—perhaps a gingered crème brulee— he pushes strawberry pies and puddings, all dull and old news. The customers choose to stay home as the sensational dessert rots in the restaurant’s refrigerated cabinet and the chef shakes his head and wonders why. I wish the diners could more easily voice their appetites!
Heidi, for as long as strawberry shortcake is selling, the chef has no reason to look deeper inside the refrigerator. So, in a way, readers do have a strong voice in what is being published. Readers’ desires beyond strawberry shortcake will get lost until readers stop buying strawberry shortcake. It’s not a perfect system, but it is a supply-and-demand system.
I think sometimes the trend is influenced by what’s going on in the real world. In the past contemporary books for kids had them off on dangerous adventures, but now they’d just pull out their cells and call for help, so it’s hard to make adventures believable. And adults spend so much time using the current technology it’s hard to keep that authentic when it will probably become dated by the time a book is published. I think that’s one reason people like Amish stories, and Sci-Fi or fantasy in the secular market.
Janet, certainly contemporary fiction can sound dated in our fast-paced, changing world. But I’d point out that Robin Jones Gunn’s Christy Miller YA series has remained relevant and popular among teen girls for more than 20 years. Robin has gone through the entire series of 12 books (which is quite a job) and done some updating. But she realized she couldn’t add cell phones, etc. to the earlier books without rewriting the books. She’s asked teens if the stories seemed out-of-date, but they’ve all responded with a puzzled look and then by saying, “No, Christy faces the same issues as I do.” That’s all they cared about.
That’s good to know. Thanks.
Yes!! Love the parable, Janet! Thank you.
Okay, this blog post is making me very hungry! And there’s not a single strawberry in the house. 🙁
Great parable, Janet!
But … the top chefs still rise above, right? Diners will scoop up whatever the celebrity chefs make from the shortcake to the filet because their name proceeds them. (And the restaurants will never turn them away.)
I mean, I’d eat ANY meal that Bobby Flay makes … because I love his personality. (I’ve yet to try his cooking!) How does that fit in? Or is that a different parable? 🙂
Janet, I’m thankful for you and others who understand the publishing market so well. It’s a mystery to me. From the reading the comments above, it’s encouraging that so many others are questioning the trend mentality (which can be seen not only in publishing but in media, entertainment, and all areas of life) and are pushing for staying true to voice and calling. I’m personally convicted by this parable because I write historical and used to read a lot of it but have turned to reading suspense. Why is that? Not sure. I need to read broadly and glean the pros from all genres.
Oh, this is delightful, Janet! I’ve read this blog for a good while without comment. But this one made me laugh out loud in agreement. I’ve been in this business a while, and actually don’t think your parable breaks down at all.
Good show!
I’ve ended up on what I believe to be the bad side of a trend. I was reading and writing dystopian and apocalyptic before it was cool. I was so happy when I saw it becoming popular, but I wasn’t ready to publish. Now that I am ready, I feel like the chances of my apocalyptic book making it are slim since the genre is “out.”
As a reader, I gulped down dozens, if not hundreds, of dystopian books as they got popular. Now, I’m getting a little tired of them and I’m a lot more selective about which ones I’ll go for. Some are great, but a lot aren’t so good. I wonder if part of the issue with the trends is that sub-par books get published because there’s a high demand for the genre, then the readers get sick of them faster. Basically, the “shortcake” is made hastily, so the consumers get a bad taste in their mouths.
Jessi, your observation often is the case: As a genre heats up, publishers can tend to lower the bar on what’s a publishable manuscript. Also, authors might well be writing faster because they’re trying to get their manuscripts on an editor’s desk while the genre still is trending upward. You chose not to submit when you knew your material wasn’t ready. I don’t think that’s a decision you’re likely to regret. The pendulum does swing! Keep your eye on the apocalyptic; I’m not so sure it’s out.