In the past week I’ve read more than 650 pages of royalty statements for our clients from a variety of publishing houses. Such an activity gives me a bird’s eye view of how the industry is doing, as I’m looking at nonfiction, fiction, and children’s books. My recent reading reminded me of a publishing axiom that held true back in the day before digital reading. I hadn’t noticed its veracity until my observations this week. Called the 10-Novels Rule, it’s an odd mix of good news, bad news.
The 10-Novels Rule Good News
First, of course, here’s the rule: An author must publish ten novels before breaking out to the next level of his/her career.
That means persistence pays off. Considering that most novelists create one book per year, that means that not until ten years after one’s first novel is published before you see a considerable increase in readership.
The rule also assumes that the novelist is writing in the same genre for all ten books. If the author jumps from genre to genre throughout those ten novels, all bets are off. That’s because historical readers like their historicals; contemporary readers want their contemporaries; suspense readers focus on suspense. While, of course, readers move around in genres, they do tend to have their favorites.
The Building Years
Those ten years are required to build a readership base that awaits the author’s next release. It takes time to build that base. (Obviously we’re speaking in generalities; exceptions always exist.) The ten years also give the author time to build a following on social media, grow an email list, and learn what works and what doesn’t to accomplish that building.
Not to mention there’s nothing like devoting oneself to ten stories, ten sets of characters (barring series characters), and ten locales to develop serious writing chops. During these building years the author is learning his/her own writing rhythms and exploring writing techniques.
The 10-Novels Rule Bad News
The most obvious bad news is that it takes ten books! That’s a lot of hours laboring over the craft. Many novelists give up before that tenth novel.
Other bad news is that publishers seldom stick with an author for ten books if consistent growth of readership isn’t seen. In the days before digital (and before the economic downturn in 2008) publishers understood that the path to building readership is long. They committed to novelists for the long haul (but not forever, of course) as long as those writers consistently wrote strong manuscripts, met deadlines, and worked hard.
Today, most publishers make it through two to three books. If sales remain anemic, new contracts aren’t forthcoming. Some publishers, through determination, make it through four or so published novels before calling it quits.
It’s not that the publishers are more impatient than in the past, but that the financial pressures on them are greater than ever. Profit margins keep growing thinner. Each of them has to determine how much they can invest in each author before cutting the publishing house’s loss for the sake of those novelists who are bringing in profits. If publishers don’t think along these lines, their entire fiction line can collapse.
The sad news for readers is that each year we lose fabulous novelists. Discouragement, lack of financial gain, lack of publisher support erode the joy these writers once felt toward their work.
So What?
If more novelists knew about the 10-Novels Rule, they would understand the price they will need to pay. And if publishers would dust off this rule and consider it as they determine which novelists receive their next contracts and which don’t, it might lead publishers to press on through a couple of more novels to see if sales start to increase.
Does the 10-Novels Rule encourage or discourage you–both as a writer and as a reader?
TWEETABLES
If novelists and publishers kept the 10-Novels Rule in mind, we might see more novelists succeed. Click to tweet.
Knowing the 10-Novels Rule could help a novelist decide if he/she wanted to stick with this chosen career. Click to tweet.
It’s encouraging to me, because ten is a number. It’s not nebulous or (thankfully) a hundred. It’s good to know the cost of the tower before we start building.
It’s also reassuring to know hard work increases our chance of success.
Thanks for that.
That’s a great perspective, William.
Janet, this post sent my thoughts in many directions. I find it encouraging to know there is a number that seems to be a gauge of when things beging to move to the next level for a novelist. It’s good to know the cost of becoming a published novelist. I’ve already been working on my platform, so that, at least, is a plus.
When I look at my age and where I’m at on this journey . . . it can seem daunting. I guess this is why I need to keep my eyes on the Lord and do the work. And trust Him to guide my journey.
Janet, I’ve had some ask why I try because it’s nearly impossible to get published. Don’t you have anything better to do? I answer … if I don’t try … why not try? I’m thankful my favorite authors tried. My clumsy efforts helped me realize my love for grammar and word-building. I recently read on William Tyndale, all that he endured to translate Bibles into English and smuggle them into England. I cherish the rhythmical beauty of his word choices and phrases such as “the apple of his eye,” “a man after his own heart,” “let there be light,” “let my people go,” and so many more. I get dewy-eyed thinking: What if he’d never tried …?
Thank you for reminding what it has cost to bring their books to readers. The sacrifices were immense for them.
Ten books gives me a target. I have three stories in mind. Seven more to seek.
Ten years gives me a heads-up. I’d better stay healthy, work hard, do the marketing, and write my heart out.
Ten years… how much will happen between 2020 and 2030? To me, to the world, to publishing? Let’s revisit this rule then and see.
Our world is changing at a daunting clip. But it comforts me that the 10-novels rule has remained true through decades of publishing/world shifts.
Just three more. 🙂
As my dad taught me to say, “I think I can, I think I can, I think I can.”
Karen, I have every confidence you’re going to make it!
Wow! I’m trying to think of the people that have ten novels with one publisher … they are the best sellers. This is fascinating, and a bit disturbing, inside info. I’ve always hoped that once you found a publishing house, it would be your publishing home.
Staying with one publishing house is the ideal, but it’s actually unusual for an author–even a best-selling one–to stay with that first house. Of course, it’s the best-selling author’s decision to make the move in that instance whereas, before you reach that status, it’s often the publisher making the choice.
“a publishing axiom that held true back in the day before digital reading.”
I’d really like to know how you think the explosion of self-publishing/digital first publishing affects this “rule”. Is it still 10 books?
And what about the power of a brilliant premise? Doesn’t that push a book (and writer) higher from the start?
With self-publishing, most authors see a jump in sales for every book added to their list. That doesn’t tend to happen in traditional publishing. I haven’t had enough of my clients self-pub 10 novels to be able to observe if the 10-novel rule applies.
Having a great premise can propel sales for a novel, even if it’s the author’s debut novel. But that’s the exception rather than the rule.
I’m an indie author and I’m so glad I’m not dependent on the approval of a publisher. Instead, my readers are the ones that matter. Having said that, the 10-Novel Rule is encouraging. It gives me something to continue to reach for. I’m already seeing my earnings growing substantially just with two novels. I will keep writing. Thanks for your post.
Every title you add to your self-pub list should cause readers to discover your other books. Most authors see regular growth of readers through the addition of each title. That’s not as true for traditional publishing; sales tend to settle into a groove until the magic of the tenth novel kicks in.