Blogger: Janet Kobobel Grant
Wendy Lawton, Mary Keeley and I returned last week from ICRS (the International Christian Retailers Show) where we met with editors and publishers to talk about what’s hot and what’s not in the publishing industry.
We don’t spend time at book conventions wandering the aisles to see what’s being showcased. That’s old news, about two years old as a matter of fact. Because the publishers made decisions to produce those books two years ago. Instead, we concentrate our energy on talking to those who are buying new product now–the editors–and those who have spotted overall industry trends–the publishers.
From our conversations we gleaned a couple of trends.
- Walmart’s latest merchandising strategy has created a tsunami of returns for publishers. Several months ago, when you walked into your local Walmart, books were showcased at the front of the store, and significant shelf space was devoted to those titles. But Walmart decided to put the books at the back of the store and to reduce book shelf space. That resulted in major returns for publishers, as Walmart sent back the books they now had no space for. Since Walmart doesn’t take publishers into its confidence, the publishers were caught unaware of this changed policy. Publishers had just figured out what size of print runs to plan in light of the upsurge of e-book sales and of the downturn in physical book sales, but this new tidal wave has set them back yet again.
What does that mean for writers and agents? Most likely a slowdown in the number of new titles being released. With less shelf space, publishers will turn to e-books to make up for the sales lost, but e-books aren’t growing at a significant enough pace to make up for the loss of physical book sales. While that’s depressing news for writers who want to break into publishing, here’s another thought to glean from this information: publishers will, more than ever, buy the types of books that sell well as e-books. That means an emphasis on romance and romantic suspense. And they’ll de-emphasize the types of books Walmart carries, which is historical Americana.
Lest everyone run out to create romance manuscripts, don’t forget that those are the leading genres, not the only genres publishers are looking for.
- On the nonfiction side, narrative nonfiction continues to dominate based on editors’ responses to projects we talked to them about. But, to keep us balanced, a glance at the CBA best-seller list and discussions with editors informs us that prescriptive books are doing well, too.
How can you keep up with trends?
Not everyone has the opportunity to sit down with editors and discuss what they are looking for. And not everyone has a chance to talk over with a publisher what’s going on industry-wide. So how can you keep up with the latest?
Be aware of what’s on the best-seller list. While we agents point out that the best-seller consists of decisions that were made a minimum of two years ago, the sales are in real-time. They tell us what readers are responding to this month or this week, depending on what best-seller list you look at. Everyone in publishing keeps an eye on the lists, and editors know what their publishing houses tend to do well with.
That means you can be pretty confident that several editors are looking for some transmutation of what’s on the list. They’ll also be trying to figure out what’s going to be hot two years from now and what’s going to look worn out. So checking the lists isn’t a guaranteed way to see what’s up the road, but it’s a darn sight better than merely guessing what editors want to buy.
How do you keep up with the trends–through reading blogs, keeping track of best-seller lists (which ones), paying attention to what you and your friends are reading, or…?
Thanks for the information, Janet!
I think I’m never really sure what is “hot” unless I keep seeing mention of the same books on blogs and Facebook. For my own reading choices, I tend to gravitate toward books my friends have recommended.
I’m curious…where does women’s fiction rank in terms of popularity with publishers and sales?
You remind me, Lindsay, that what makes me saddest about the demise of book stores is that my favorite way to choose books is still to wander the aisles of a bookstore. I really do need an intervention.
OTOH, I adore being able to read a sample on my nook before choosing whether or not to buy a book.
Mary, you’re not alone in how you choose books you want to read. Aisles to meander is something unique that bookstores offer. If a bookstore isn’t around, you and I will need to develop new ways to discover “what’s next for us.” Friends’ recommendations are a help.
Lindsay, women’s fiction is a fairly strong genre, especially if the manuscript doesn’t require the reader to slog through heavy issues but instead delights the reader, such as The Help did.
How significant is the Walmart move for the CBA? Did they carry that big of a list of Christian titles? It surprises me to hear of Christian publishers being that thrown back by Walmart. Always something new to learn!
Thank you.
I don’t have a Walmart near me so I had no idea about this move. I am really curious about it though because anytime I’ve traveled outside the city (especially where there were no book stores) Walmart was a place to rely on for my book shopping fix.
Bill, Walmart was a significant outlet for CBA titles, fiction especially. I guess Walmart shoppers tend to like inspirational books. So, yes, Walmart’s decision put a major hurt on Christian publishers.
I’m always surprised by how many Christian titles Walmart carries. Our local one has a lot of Amish romance.
How much of an impact do other grocery stores (say Stop and Shop) have on the CBA market? I ask this because I recently noticed bookshelves in a more visible location at a local Stop and Shop.
Leah, grocery store book sales are strong for some Christian publishers; not so much for others. I feel as if that answer is akin to “mileage may vary depending on the driver.” One variable is whether that publisher has a sales rep that’s made good inroads into the market. Another is whether that publisher regularly produces the type of book grocery stores do well with.
Fascinating, Janet. I feel like the little kid peeking through the staircase at the grownups gathered below.
I’m having the same reaction now that I did to hearing that tea has health benefits. Yay! Something I like is good for me. It’s comforting to know that what you write is what’s in demand.
I didn’t ever think of it particularly as keeping up with trends, but certainly reading discussions of books on FB, blogs, Goodreads, B&N and Amazon give me a sense of what books are out there and how people feel about them.
As always, thank for sharing the news and your insights.
I’m glad the industry news was encouraging to you, Mary.
Wow! Talk about food for thought. So much for writers to consider. I knew WalMart made the move to place books in the back of their store. I didn’t realize the ramifications it had for publishers, though.
As one who tends to rely on friends’ recommendations, your suggestion to know what’s “trending” is a wise one. I’ll have to be more serious about looking at those best seller’s lists.
Thanks, Jan, for your concise way of explaining all of this!
Walmart stocks Harlequin books, which includes Steeple Hill Love Inspired titles. I’ve also seen Karen Kingsbury titles, Christian nonfiction and Historical fiction titles. Walmart is great for browsing, their books tend to have lower prices because they buy in bulk and can discount.
Speaking of more ebooks, what do you think about Zondervan First? Seems like a pretty great idea, but also a little scary to someone like me who longs for traditional publication.
Zondervan’s First could be a good option for an author who wants to have a traditional publisher’s reputation tied to his/her project; have a knowledgeable staff create the ebook and cover; and have a chance, through good ebook sales, to be considered for that publisher’s traditional line of books.
For some writers that list of benefits doesn’t outweigh the difference in royalty payments between self-pubbing and having someone else do the work. But those are the basic elements you need to weigh.
I work less than 2 miles from Wal-Mart headquarters. The local supercenter made the change to the back-of-the-store, smaller book area a couple of years ago. But the supercenter I shop at most still has a larger book space closer to the front. That store is near a retirement community, and possibly sells more books. W-M has an incredible inventory-sales tracking system. If they reduced the square footage devoted to books and consequently the number of titles, that indicates the sales per square foot just weren’t cutting it with the larger, front-of-the-store book areas.
I’d sure like to be able to use my location to promote my books directly to W-M buyers, but so far haven’t. We had one man at our church who was high up in the W-M entertainment arm. I e-mailed him about my poetry book, but never received a response.
Thanks for these insights, David. I’m sure Walmart made this decision based on the most profitable use of the front-of-the-store space. I don’t fault them for their choice; if I ran Walmart, I’d make the same decision.
But that doesn’t mean reducing the shelf space and putting books at the back of the store doesn’t hurt publishers and authors. It does.
I do find it interesting that you’re aware of a supercenter that carries more book, at the front of the store. That tells us that Walmart is making decisions based on individual stores.
Regarding your own books, you need to pray that a Walmart book buyer starts to attend your church. 🙂
Yes, it would hurt book buyers, authors, and publishers. It means only those books that sell in significant quantities will be stocked.
It’s absolutely certain W-M varies their products, inventory, shelf space, store layout, etc. store by store according to how sales go. I could give several examples of products that are stocked in the Bentonville store but not in the Jane Missouri store, ten miles away just across the state line.
I concur with what David said. The Wal-Mart Supercenter where I shop every week continues to keep books up front, right next to the greeting cards. In addition, CBA titles are displayed prominently on the book aisle endcap. I have noticed, however, they sometimes stock a bargain book table in the back main aisle not far from the DVDs and CDs. I’m hoping you’re right and it is a store-by-store decision and not a company-wide initiative. That said, I’ve worked with Wal-Mart as one of their vendors, and they aren’t very kind to them. It’s either done their way or not at all, so a company-wide initiative that unfolds as stores are relaid wouldn’t be a surprise.
I use agent blogs like this one and reader blogs to track trends. I also glance at Amazon bestsellers lists and the NYT bestsellers list. I try to read more of what I write or intend to write than in other genres, so I get a feel for what’s out there.
Thanks for keeping us up to date with what’s going on, Janet.
This is interesting to hear about Walmart. I have been wondering why the books are not in the front anymore.
I have a question. How do you get a picture by your name when you post?? I have no idea. Thanks!
Morgan, I have no idea how the pics appear. I enter our blog through our agency’s dashboard, and it’s programmed to have my pic show up. Maybe another blog reader can offer us some insight.
The picture usually comes from your WordPress Gravatar. I’m not sure it will pick one up if you’re using Blogger.
I use Blogger. Did my photo show up here? (I apologize for wandering off topic.)
Janet~ You can still get a Gravatar image for sites like this even if you use Blogger (I use Blogger too). Just go to http://en.gravatar.com/ 🙂
I’m so glad you asked! I’ve always wondered why I had no smiling face here, but always do on other blogs when I post using my Google account. Now, I’m off to http://en.gravatar.com/
Thanks!! I got my picture to work!! 😀
Yeah! So happy to see your face
Lots of gratitude to you, Janet, and to all the Books & Such agents for helping all of us keep up with the trends. Twitter scans of what Publishers Weekly and other industry magazines are saying is also a good way to keep up, but I like having someone who knows the industry and can interpret the trends like you just did in this post!
Sue, I’m glad you found this post helpful in interpreting what’s going on in the industry. Sometimes Publishers Weekly articles can be very helpful in spotting trends because they report on statistics.
An editor said at a conference some years ago that if we watch the secular trend, the Christian trend will follow in about two years. Is this still true?
If so, that means my YA steampunk WIP is right on trend!
It generally does take the Christian market a couple of years to integrate a secular trend into CBA. But the Christian market has created some trends that the secular market is imitating: books on heaven and books about the Amish.
Very interesting, Janet. Thank you for sharing!
I’m sure this has been asked and answered elsewhere but maybe you can help someone relatively new to this part of the industry: Obviously the trends are moving towards electronic delivery and, even though there are lots of us who (a) don’t have a Nook/Kindle/iPad yet or (b) just like the feel of a book in our hands, there’s not much we can do to stop the trend. It seems to me that publishers should embrace this technology, if for no other reason, because the costs of printing/publishing/delivering is going nowhere but up, but what does it mean to the individual writer? Do we need to “fear” the trend or embrace it. Sure, as a writer I’d love to see my book in my hand, but what if that’s not the way the trends are headed?
Sorry for this addition- I’m going to embrace it either way, but does it make it tougher for a writer to make a living, or at least some gas money?
First, of all, I see no end to the printing of physical books. Too many people love a book for the look and feel of it as well as for its content. Plus books are lovely, and we like to display them. We want to own physical copies of books we especially enjoyed so we can cast our eye onto our bookshelves and revisit each book-reading experience just with a glance. So, Darby, while you need to embrace the digital trend, you can still look forward to holding a physical copy of your book.
So far, for authors, 25% royalty for ebooks, which is what most publishers pay, tends to result is less money for the author than the sale of a physical book. That’s because ebooks often sell for less than a physical book.
But there’s a lot of pressure on publishers to pay more and to pay escalations, so as digital becomes a bigger part of publishing, look for changes in what an author earns on digital sales.
“We want to own physical copies of books we especially enjoyed so we can cast our eye onto our bookshelves and revisit each book-reading experience just with a glance.”
That is a blog post in and of itself! Love the way you put it, Janet.
Hi Janet – Did Target come up in this discussion? I noticed that the books are now in the back of Target, but the book area is much larger.
Linda, none of the publishers I talked with mentioned Target; so I can’t comment on what’s happening there.
Julie in our office did point out to me this morning that our local Costco has reconfigured its book section, reducing it significantly but leaving it in the middle of the store. However, rather than a shopper having ready access from the two big aisles, a shopper only sees it when traveling on one of main aisles.
Hmmm – I’m in Canada so this front-of-store book space is new to me. I’ve never seen books at the front of the store. At best they’re buried in the cards section, or on a discount table in a back aisle.
As for trends, most of the authors I follow who’ve found success (ie/landed on best-seller lists, etc.) said they just wrote the story on their hearts, that they just had to tell. Not many of them wrote for trends. That said, writing historical fantasy, the ‘trend’ has been very narrow for a very long time in the CBA.
Certainly writing the story you’re passionate about is very important. And I’m not advocating writers keep switching genres based on trends. But if the trend is up for what you want to write; that’s very happy news.
As a writer I’m excited about the ebook trend, because I think it has the potential to win readers for the author who might not be able to win a distinctive presence via the traditional book sales outlets. I also see ebook readers as more willing to try new things (including new writers). That’s anecdotal (I haven’t exactly done a Gallup study), but I believe it. As a reader, I will always love the idea of a book in my hands when I read. However, as an AVID reader I don’t need to own a physical copy of every book I want to read. And I love the idea of taking a dozen books on a trip with me, without having to worry about the consequences for my luggage. I think ebooks expand the enthusiasm for reading by improving accessibility.
Stephanie, it’s certainly true that serious readers are awash in books they’ve read and now have to figure out what to do with them. Storage is a big plus with digital books.
And I love to travel with a boatload of books on my Kindle or iPad. If such devises were powered by solar, the whole question of what one would read if stranded on a deserted island would go away. Why, I’d have quite the library with me!
Reading habits are important to understand because they help us to grasp trends.
Thanks for the update on the Christian Market Trends, Janet! It is so helpful to hear from industry experts. (Also, excited to know that my genre is still toward the top)
Quick question: Would historical romance that takes place in America fall under the category “historical Americana”? This is my first exposure to that particular term.
Thanks for the insightful post, and the thousands of miles and millions of meetings you attended to bring it to us! 🙂
Amanda, yes, historical romance would fit under historical Americana. We don’t use the word “Americana” often, but one of the marketing folks I talked to used it, and I thought it perfectly depicted what he had in mind because setting is very important to most of these books.
Thank you, Janet. That term does do a good job of encompassing this sub-genre, you’re right. A few of the publishers mention looking for historical American novels on the ACFW conference “editor appointments” page, and many say they’re seeking historical romance.
Do you think their preferences may change between the time they submitted their “what we’re looking for information” to ACFW and the actual conference, due to new information gleaned at events like ICRS?
Amanda, yes, it’s quite possible that editors who, when they filled out their preference forms for ACFW, have pulled back on buying historical Americana. That doesn’t mean the category has died, but it has constricted.
Gottcha; that’s logical. Thanks so much!
I’ve always been under the impression that massive returns were seen as a negative mark on an author’s reputation. Will that be true for those books caught up in these Wal-mart returns?
It’s amazing how the “domino effect” runs rampant in the publishing world. One decision affects so many people (publishers, agents, writers, readers, sellers)! And you all as agents (and the editors) seem to need the ability to tell the future!
Thank you for sharing this inside look. I (try to) keep updated with the industry trends through fellow recommendations and trustworthy blogs lie this one! I’m like Lindsay H. said above in that I don’t feel like I know exactly what’s trendy beyond my own opinions other than seeing certain books recommended over and over again.
Thanks so much for this post, Janet! I love knowing that our agents are taking such good care of us. I feel so lucky that you guys know the ins and outs.
Book reviewing does have it’s perks. It allows me to see what’s new even though it was decided two years ago. It allows me to learn from those who have “made it.”