Blogger: Rachelle Gardner
When facing massive uncertainty, as exists in today’s highly interconnected global economy, it is essential to appreciate both what one does know as well as what one does not know. ~Vikram Mansharamani
Publishing has been operating in an atmosphere of uncertainty for years now. Right now we’re in a pandemic which has affected all businesses as well as consumer behavior, so obviously publishing is uncertain right now. But — we could look back to the financial crisis of 2008 when everything was thrown into question, and say, THAT was really when publishing faced uncertainty. Or… was it the previous year, 2007, when the Kindle was released, that things really changed? The introduction of digital books certainly changed the landscape. But wait. It had to be social media that changed everything, right? Why would people read books when they could scroll Twitter all day? We had no idea what was going to happen!
But then again, maybe it was the Internet itself that made publishing so uncertain. Would people need books anymore, when they could get all they wanted online? No, no, no. It was television that was going to kill books. But weren’t video games the death knell? No, it was movies. Maybe it was radio! Actually, it was the ease of self-publishing that was going to kill the traditional publishing industry. Right?
You get my point. In an uncertain world, publishing has been an uncertain business for a long time. Yet in many ways, even right now during the Covid-19 crisis, the publishing industry is still operating “business as usual.” People are still reading books. Publishers are still producing them. As literary agents, this is where we keep our focus. For hundreds of years and through countless crises, people have continued to read. We’re going to behave as if that’s still true. When and if it becomes clear we need to pivot in some way, we will.
It’s a fact that things are uncertain. There is truly so much we don’t know, especially with the pandemic changing so many business models. I think it’s crucial that when discussing career paths, when making decisions for the future, we acknowledge what we don’t know.
- I know publishers are still making traditional advance/royalty deals, and they’re still taking a year or more to get a book out. I don’t know if this will change very much in the next few years.
- I know print books are still selling, and I know sales of e-books are stable, and I know the proportion of audiobooks sold is growing relative to other formats. But I don’t know when or if any of this will change.
- I know writers are free to self-publish a book any time they choose (if not restricted by a traditional publishing contract). I don’t know exactly how it will affect their publishing future; for some it’s positive, for some it’s not.
- I know publishers, like many businesses, have experienced financial challenges from the pandemic, some significant, some less so. I don’t know how it will all play out long term.
- I know many authors feel anxiety about the future because of all this uncertainty. I don’t know how to convince them it’s always been somewhat uncertain, so they may as well get back to work!
I’ve seen several publishing-related news articles lately, in which the writer interviewed various players in publishing, trying to discern how the current pandemic crisis is going to affect us in the long run. There are lots of different data points, and lots of opinions. But it all seems to add up to one big “we don’t know yet.” Everyone is continuing along, doing the best they can. Nobody is operating out of any great body of evidence. Each industry professional is speaking from their own experience, a bit of data, and a lot of instinct based on years in the business.
So what should authors do? Keep writing your books, if that’s what you want to do. While much is unknowable, I’m fairly certain there will always be ways to get your words in front of people, regardless of how closely it resembles current traditional publishing. Try not to overly concern yourself with the uncertainty. That’s the state in which we live (even though we pretend it’s not). The fact that publishing is uncertain, well, it’s not exactly news. Best to keep your eyes on what you control.
Keep writing! The world needs you.
What do you KNOW about current and future publishing? What DON’T you know?
Photo by Sharon McCutcheon on Unsplash
Shirlee Abbott
This is all I need to know:
“I know whom I have believed, and am convinced that he is able to guard what I have entrusted to him until that day” (2 Timothy 1:12).
Through all the changes you describe, Rachelle, this comforts and encourages me. God knows, and that’s enough.
Kim Ligon
I know we are not promised tomorrow, that was true before the pandemic and is still true. So write and write and if tomorrow comes, you might be published or you might write and write some more looking towards the next possible tomorrow.
Andrew Budek-Schmeisser
In days of great uncertainty
for the young and for the hoary,
the basic need will ever be,
“Please tell me a story.
Tell me tales of derrin-do,
romance in Amish bonnets.
Describe to me far Timbuktu
and weirdos who write sonnets.
Let your words be looking-glass
to behold a better me,
to see each bonny lad and lass
with God-eyes of mercy;
but mostly, writer, could you say
that things are gonna be OK?”
Andrew Budek-Schmeisser
What’s a morning without a typo?
Fifth line, should obviously be ‘derring-do’.
Shirlee Abbott
I see you, Andrew, in your poem. But I’d label you not so much a “weirdo” as “unorthodox.” And yes, in the end, things will be OK.
Andrew Budek-Schmeisser
Shirlee, thanks…but I will also happily answer to weirdo!
I do believe, strongly, that the written word is what changes lives. Not many people get a paradigm shift from a movie (“Like, dude, ‘Bill and Ted’s Excellent Adventure’ changed my life, dude!”), but many, many were convicted in their hearts by novels.
And by poetry; Nelson Mandela was stengthened in his long imprisonment by ‘Invictus’.
William Cowie
Good insight, Rachelle. God, for some reason, wired telling and hearing stories into our DNA, right from the time of odes, myths and campfires. That’s not changing till the day we’re all looking forward to.
What has changed, and will continue changing, is what success looks like. Then, as now, only the good stories “made it.” Back then it was “let me tell you the story I heard last night,” today it’s being published.
We who like telling stories, well, why should how stories spread stop us? One way or another, good stories will “make it.” The Shack, for example.
As for non-fiction, the same applies, only that taps into the desire to learn more that’s wired into us, and the changes only affect how mankind passes on its accumulating knowledge…
Jeanne Takenaka
Rachelle, you have a gift for sharing pespectives that are balanced. Thank you for the reminder that there’s always been a sense of uncertainty in publishing. And, if we’re honest, in most areas of life. But, that uncertainty shouldn’t cripple. When we are doing what God’s asked us to do, that’s the important thing, regardless of what’s going on around us.
You’ve got me thinking (again).
Kristen Joy Wilks
Such a good reminder, Rachelle! Looking over your list of perils to publishing, past and present, I’m struck by how eclectic my family’s way of reading is. If I buy a book for myself, I buy it on my Nook (the simple one, just for reading) end of story. I also (before covid) got library books both for myself and my 3 sons. I purchase a physical book (mostly trade paperbacks) every month for each of my sons and gift it to them when I see a particular moment of kindness, maturity, or helpfulness. They borrow these books back and forth among themselves, loan them to their friends and occasionally to me or their Dad. My husband almost exclusively listens to books through audible. There is one series that I have on my Nook, my oldest son has in paperback, and my husband has on Audible. Yes, these books are that beloved and although my oldest is meticulous in his care of books, his paperbacks are quite tattered as they have been loaned out so many times. I don’t read a lot of self-published books, because they are almost always for the Kindle and I have a Nook, so unless folks also self-publish with Barnes and Noble, they have bypassed me as a reader. Anyway, all this to say that our family reads tons, but in so many different ways! People love and want story, that has not changed.
Richard Mabry
Rachelle, you’ve set down all the uncertainties we’ve experienced as authors. And the most important lesson from all this is that, if it’s something we feel we must do, we should keep writing. Thanks for sharing your wisdom.
Cheryl Cecelia Malandrinos
This is such sound advice, Rachelle. Our industry has been through so many changes through the years. Thankfully, God is in control of it all.
Kathy
Thank you for your honesty about the uncertainties, as well as the reminders that there have been plenty of other times of uncertainty. Also the encouragement to keep on writing!!